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NFL Free Pick | Chiefs @ Saints

 

The Chiefs took over the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoff race last week thanks to a second straight loss by the Pittsburgh Steelers. The New Orleans Saints gave up the No. 1 seed in the NFC after an upset loss to the Philadelphia Eagles.

Sunday afternoon’s match up might be a preview of Super Bowl LV and we have a free pick for you. Both teams want to earn that coveted No. 1 seed and the first-round bye that goes with it. Neither team can afford a loss.

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The Saints appear as though they will play without QB Drew Brees once again. Can Taysom Hill lead New Orleans to a victory against the defending champs?

Game: Kansas City Chiefs (12-1, 6-7 ATS) at New Orleans Saints (11-2, 7-6 ATS)

When: 4:25 PM ET, Sunday, December 20, 2020

Where: Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana

Current Line: KC -3   Total: 51.5

TV Coverage:  CBS

King of the Hill

In five starts, Hill is a very respectable 4-1. That might be a bit misleading though as the Saints have played 49ers, Falcons twice, Broncos, and Eagles in those five games. None of those five rank higher than 14th in the league in DVOA. Those four teams also have a combined record of 18-33.

MUST READ > WHY LINE SHOPPING IS IMPORTANT

The Saints offense, with Hill at quarterback, has been efficient but has only put up an average of roughly 24 points per game. It has been enough to win four games because of the New Orleans defense. In the Saints four wins with Hill at quarterback, the defense gave up 16, 3, 9, and 13 points. 

New Orleans defense faces its toughest test this week against a Kansas City offense that averages 31 points a game (2nd in the NFL). Quarterback Patrick Mahomes has been his outstanding self and TE Travis Kelce and WR Tyreek Hill (11 touchdowns in 13 games) make the Chiefs hard to stop.

Our last pick here was a winner! We took the OVER in our Chargers @ Dolphins free pick … check it out!

Chiefs are Streaking

The Chiefs have won eight straight and under head coach Andy Reid they have performed well against teams with a record above .500. Reid’s Chiefs are 39-30-1 ATS when playing teams with a winning record.

What Kansas City hasn’t done in each of its last five games is cover a spread. On the other hand, New Orleans is 5-1 ATS in its last six games. The Saints have done so by sticking to a script - run the football and play great defense.

Did you miss last week’s action? No worries, we got you covered. Read NFL Week 14 by the numbers.

Keys to the Game

The Saints running game will be a key on Sunday against a Chiefs run defense that is suspect. Kansas City is ranked 26th in run defense allowing 128.4 yards rushing per game. New Orleans has outrushed its last five opponents by an average of 80 yards per game. If they do that Sunday, they can keep the ball away from the Chiefs high-powered offense.

New Orleans, under head coach Sean Payton, almost always responds favorably to a loss. In 10 games following a loss under Payton, the Saints are 9-1 straight up. It’s also worth noting that in games after a loss when playing as the underdog, New Orleans is 12-3 ATS.

NFL Free Pick: NEW ORLEANS +3





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