Pick | Chiefs @ Saints
took over the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoff race last week thanks to a second
straight loss by the Pittsburgh Steelers. The New Orleans Saints gave up the
No. 1 seed in the NFC after an upset loss to the Philadelphia Eagles.
afternoon’s match up might be a preview of Super Bowl LV and we have a free pick
for you. Both teams want to earn that coveted No. 1 seed and the first-round bye
that goes with it. Neither team can afford a loss.
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appear as though they will play without QB Drew Brees once again. Can Taysom
Hill lead New Orleans to a victory against the defending champs?
Kansas City Chiefs (12-1, 6-7 ATS) at New Orleans Saints (11-2, 7-6 ATS)
PM ET, Sunday, December 20, 2020
Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana
Line: KC -3 Total:
starts, Hill is a very respectable 4-1. That might be a bit misleading though
as the Saints have played 49ers, Falcons twice, Broncos, and Eagles in those
five games. None of those five rank higher than 14th in the league in DVOA.
Those four teams also have a combined record of 18-33.
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offense, with Hill at quarterback, has been efficient but has only put up an
average of roughly 24 points per game. It has been enough to win four games
because of the New Orleans defense. In the Saints four wins with Hill at
quarterback, the defense gave up 16, 3, 9, and 13 points.
defense faces its toughest test this week against a Kansas City offense that
averages 31 points a game (2nd in the NFL). Quarterback Patrick Mahomes has
been his outstanding self and TE Travis Kelce and WR Tyreek Hill (11 touchdowns
in 13 games) make the Chiefs hard to stop.
pick here was a winner! We took the OVER in our Chargers
@ Dolphins free pick … check it out!
have won eight straight and under head coach Andy Reid they have performed well
against teams with a record above .500. Reid’s Chiefs are 39-30-1 ATS when
playing teams with a winning record.
City hasn’t done in each of its last five games is cover a spread. On the other
hand, New Orleans is 5-1 ATS in its last six games. The Saints have done so by
sticking to a script - run the football and play great defense.
miss last week’s action? No worries, we got you covered. Read NFL
Week 14 by the numbers.
running game will be a key on Sunday against a Chiefs run defense that is
suspect. Kansas City is ranked 26th in run defense allowing 128.4 yards rushing
per game. New Orleans has outrushed its last five opponents by an average of 80
yards per game. If they do that Sunday, they can keep the ball away from the
Chiefs high-powered offense.
under head coach Sean Payton, almost always responds favorably to a loss. In 10
games following a loss under Payton, the Saints are 9-1 straight up. It’s also
worth noting that in games after a loss when playing as the underdog, New
Orleans is 12-3 ATS.
Pick: NEW ORLEANS +3