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NFL Free Pick | Panthers @ Falcons | Week 5

 

Carolina started the 2020 season with consecutive losses under first-year head coach Matt Rhule. Then, they lost star RB Christian McCaffrey to a sprained ankle and promptly won their next two games.

Now, the Panthers will face NFC South Division foe Atlanta which has possibly the worst defense in the entire NFL. The Falcons are giving up 460.5 yards and 34.5 points per game. Ouch.

GET THE 1VICE ADVANTAGE BETTING THE NFL

Itís ironic that Falcons head coach Dan Quinn is a defensive guy. Remember, he was the Seahawks defensive coordinator  when they won their Super Bowl. Heís also the key to this free pick.

Game: Carolina Panthers (2-2, 2-2 ATS) at Atlanta Falcons (0-4, 1-3 ATS)

When: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, October 11, 2020

Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia

Current Line: ATL -2 Total: 54

TV Coverage: FOX

Head to Head

Atlanta has actually won the last five games in this series. The Panthers havenít beaten the Falcons since 2017. Carolina hasnít been very good overall as of late. Their two wins in the past two weeks are their only two wins in their past ten games, but will that stop those looking for the best free picks?.

Still, there is reason to back the Panthers on Sunday. Yes, they will be without McCaffrey again, but Mike Davis has filled in quite admirably for the Carolina star and QB Teddy Bridgewater is completing 73 percent of his passes.

The Carolina defense has also played well enough the past two weeks to allow the Panthers an opportunity to win. That cannot be said of the Falcons defense.

Whereís the Defense?

Atlanta has given up at least 30 points in each of its four games this season. The pass defense is horrendous yielding 353.8 yards per game. Bridgewater could have a field day picking apart the Falcons who have four safeties listed as questionable for Sundayís game.

MUST READ> 5Dimes Sportsbook Customers are Switching to Americaís Bookie

As bad as the Atlanta defense is, itís not the most attractive reason for betting against the Falcons. 

In Quinnís five-plus seasons as the Falcons head coach, his record against the spread is not very good. Atlanta opponents have flourished.

Against the Spread Numbers

Falcons opponents are 46-37 ATS with Quinn as the head coach. If you take out the one season when Quinn had current San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan as his offensive coordinator, the opponents record ATS soars to 40-27. 

Underdogs are an impressive 33-18 ATS against Quinn. Speaking of underdogs, those playing on the road against a divisional opponent early in the season fare pretty well. 

In the last 657 such divisional games, the road underdog is 354-280-23 in games played in either September, October, or November. The road dog has a bit of an advantage, it appears, when playing a team in the first of two games in a season. Later in the second game, the two divisional rivals are more familiar with each other.

Now, Atlanta has beaten Carolina in five straight. The Falcons have even covered the spread in each of those five games. Yes, Quinn was the head coach in all five games too. 

Still, this is another chance to bet on an underdog going up against Quinn and Atlanta. And thatís a bet worth taking.

NFL Free Pick: CAROLINA +2 at Americaís Bookie

Need another free pick? Check out our Bengals @ Ravens free pick over at BestFreePicks.com.





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