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Advantages of Betting NFL 2nd Half Odds


Betting NFL 2nd half odds have advantages and disadvantages.

Key Points

Ė Sportsbooks donít have a lot of time to calculate and post NFL 2nd half odds.

Ė There are a few strategies bettors can use to take advantage of betting NFL 2nd half odds.

Betting NFL 2nd Half Lines

NFL bettors would be wise to consider the advantages of betting NFL 2nd half odds. Sportsbooks are at a huge disadvantage in this market and the smarter bettor can exploit inefficiencies and capitalize big time.

Itís important for bettors to understand how all NFL betting markets work, and obviously that includes second half lines. Then, with a knowledge of what to look for, bettors can really prosper when they place these wagers.

How Sportsbooks Set 2nd Half Lines

When an NFL game hits halftime, offshore sportsbooks go to work and establish their second half lines and odds. The problem for sportsbooks is that they donít have much time to do so.

An NFL halftime, by rule, is only 13 minutes long. At best, sportsbooks may have 15 minutes total to post lines for each gameís second half. With a limited amount of time, sportsbooks are more likely to make mistakes when establishing these second half lines/odds.

This is why NFL bettors should get into this market. It requires some knowledge though. There are four primary strategies bettors can use to take advantage of NFL 2nd half betting odds.

Hey!? Do you know how to bet futures?

Big 2nd Half Underdogs

Remember, the only thing that matters is the result of the second half. The results of the first half of the game do not matter; however, the first half play may influence the outcome of the second half.

One thing NFL bettors can look for is a big second half underdog. Since 2003, 2nd half underdogs have won just about 50 percent of the time (1631-1628-115) against the spread.

That might not look like much, but when you break it down further and find larger 2nd half underdogs there is some value to be found. Underdogs getting seven or more points seem to be where the value really begins.

Since 2005, NFL second half underdogs getting at least seven points are 147-98-25. Thatís a winning percentage of 60 percent. Covering a touchdown or more is difficult in an NFL game. Covering a touchdown or more in just a half is also difficult for a favorite that may take its foot off the gas in the fourth quarter.


The Big Halftime Lead - Betting NFL 2nd Half

The prevailing thought on an NFL team with a big halftime lead is this. They are likely to regress in the second half and the losing team will make the necessary adjustments to get back in the game.

If youíre going to get into betting NFL 2nd half odds, you should know that is not the reality of the situation. Teams with big first-half leads typically keep pouring it on in the second half.

Since 2003, NFL teams that have held a 14-plus-point lead at the half are 425-354-17 ATS in the second half. Thatís a solid winning percentage of 55 percent. If a bettor sees an NFL team with a 14-point (or higher) lead at the half, history suggests that it will be undervalued in the second half.

Of course there are live betting lines throughout the entire game now. Do you wager on in-game lines? We recently wrote an article on it.

Pre-Game Favorites Losing at the Half

Another NFL second half betting strategy is to fade big pregame favorites that are losing at halftime. The key is ďbigĒ pregame favorites. These would be teams favored by at least 10 points.

Since 2005, teams in this category have been very good against the spread. Pregame favorites of 10 points or more that are tied or losing at the half are 59-48-3 (55.1%).

It makes sense too. Good teams typically are better at making halftime adjustments and have more incentive to come back and try and win. In the postseason, this wager makes even more sense as those pregame favorites have even more incentive to win.

In the postseason, these teams are 38-25-3 giving them a winning percentage over 60 percent. Itís a smaller sample but one worthy of consideration.

Second Half Totals Betting

One other NFL 2nd half betting strategy involves the total. Not as many bets are placed on second half totals, but value can still be found. Since 2003, the second half Over has won 50.3 percent of the time.

Thatís not eye-opening; however, when the second half total is 20 or less, the Over win rate jumps to 53.1 percent. Add in another factor - the first half total didnít go Over - and that win rate jumps to 55.5 percent.

Each of these betting strategies can be used by NFL bettors to take advantage of betting NFL 2nd half markets.

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