Advantages of Betting NFL 2nd
Half Odds
Betting NFL 2nd half
odds have advantages and disadvantages.
Key Points
– Sportsbooks don’t
have a lot of time to calculate and post NFL 2nd half odds.
– There are a few
strategies bettors can use to take advantage of betting NFL 2nd half odds.
Betting
NFL 2nd Half Lines
NFL bettors would be
wise to consider the advantages of betting NFL 2nd half odds. Sportsbooks are
at a huge disadvantage in this market and the smarter bettor can exploit
inefficiencies and capitalize big time.
It’s important for
bettors to understand how all NFL betting markets work, and obviously that
includes second half lines. Then, with a knowledge of what to look for, bettors
can really prosper when they place these wagers.
How
Sportsbooks Set 2nd Half Lines
When an NFL game
hits halftime, offshore
sportsbooks go to work and establish their second half lines and
odds. The problem for sportsbooks is that they don’t have much time to do so.
An NFL halftime, by
rule, is only 13 minutes long. At best, sportsbooks may have 15 minutes total
to post lines for each game’s second half. With a limited amount of time,
sportsbooks are more likely to make mistakes when establishing these second
half lines/odds.
This is why NFL bettors
should get into this market. It requires some knowledge though. There are four
primary strategies bettors can use to take advantage of NFL 2nd half betting
odds.
Hey!? Do you know how to bet futures?
Big 2nd
Half Underdogs
Remember, the only
thing that matters is the result of the second half. The results of the first
half of the game do not matter; however, the first half play may influence the
outcome of the second half.
One thing NFL
bettors can look for is a big second half underdog. Since 2003, 2nd half
underdogs have won just about 50 percent of the time (1631-1628-115) against
the spread.
That might not look
like much, but when you break it down further and find larger 2nd half
underdogs there is some value to be found. Underdogs getting seven or more
points seem to be where the value really begins.
Since 2005, NFL
second half underdogs getting at least seven points are 147-98-25. That’s a
winning percentage of 60 percent. Covering a touchdown
or more is difficult in an NFL game. Covering a touchdown or more in just a
half is also difficult for a favorite that may take its foot off the gas in the
fourth quarter.
ICYMI > 2022 NFL SEASON PREVIEW
The Big
Halftime Lead - Betting NFL 2nd Half
The prevailing
thought on an NFL team with a big halftime lead is this. They are likely to
regress in the second half and the losing team will make the necessary
adjustments to get back in the game.
If you’re going to
get into betting NFL 2nd half odds, you should know that is not the reality of
the situation. Teams with big first-half leads typically keep pouring it on in
the second half.
Since 2003, NFL
teams that have held a 14-plus-point lead at the half are 425-354-17 ATS in the
second half. That’s a solid winning percentage of 55
percent. If a bettor sees an NFL team with a 14-point (or higher) lead at the
half, history suggests that it will be undervalued in the second half.
Of course there are live betting lines throughout the
entire game now. Do you wager on in-game lines? We recently wrote an article on
it.
Pre-Game
Favorites Losing at the Half
Another NFL second
half betting strategy is to fade big pregame favorites that are losing at
halftime. The key is “big” pregame favorites. These would be teams favored by
at least 10 points.
Since 2005, teams in
this category have been very good against the spread. Pregame favorites of
10 points or more that are tied or losing at the half are 59-48-3 (55.1%).
It makes sense too.
Good teams typically are better at making halftime adjustments and have more
incentive to come back and try and win. In the postseason, this wager makes
even more sense as those pregame favorites have even more incentive to win.
In the postseason,
these teams are 38-25-3 giving them a winning percentage over 60 percent. It’s
a smaller sample but one worthy of consideration.
Second
Half Totals Betting
One other NFL 2nd
half betting strategy involves the total. Not as many bets are placed on second
half totals, but value can still be found. Since 2003, the second half Over has
won 50.3 percent of the time.
That’s not
eye-opening; however, when the second half total is 20 or less, the Over win
rate jumps to 53.1 percent. Add in another factor - the first half total
didn’t go Over - and that win rate jumps to 55.5 percent.
Each of these betting strategies can be used by NFL
bettors to take advantage of betting NFL 2nd half markets.
