Trying
to Make Sense of NFL Regular Season Team Wins
In
an attempt to bridge the gap between meaningful football games, a lot of the
time bettors take to futures. Picking the Super Bowl champ is a favorite, but
trying to figure out team win totals is a common wager as well. Let’s go ahead
and try to make sense of NFL regular season team wins by looking at three
divisions.
NFC
South
The
NFC South has to be the most intriguing division going into the 2018 NFL
season. The division was well represented in last year’s playoffs, with the New
Orleans Saints, Carolina Panthers and Atlanta Falcons playing in the second
season. The Saints and Panthers both had 11 wins, Atlanta had 10 with Tampa Bay
at 5.
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Seasons
are won and lost within the division, which was very evident last year after the
Buc’s won only three of 12 division games. This year online sportsbooks have
their win total at 6.5. With Jameis Winston set to serve a suspension to start
the season for groping an Uber driver, and last year’s record in a tough
division, the UNDER should be considered.
The
other 3 is where it gets tricky. Look at it this way, 1 will be better, 1 will
be worse and 1 will stay close to the same. Will the Saints two Rookie of the
Years from last season regress in their sophomore season, will there be any on
the field signs of Julio Jones’ contract squabble or can the Panthers get a
full season out of Kuechly and what will Cam do with a virtual no name wide
receiver core? That’s for you to figure out. Current win totals have the Saints
at 9.5 with both the Panthers and Falcons at 9.
NFC
West
The
Los Angeles Rams went 11-5 last season, but only managed a 7-5 division record,
although they were a huge 7-1 on the road, going .500 at home. Seattle, Arizona
and Frisco had 9, 8 and 6 wins respectively, including the 49ers getting the W
in their last 5 after Jimmy Wonderful lined up under center.
According
to CBSSports.com, the 9ers are dead center of this season’s strength of
schedule, tied for 15th at exactly .500. Their number is at 8.5 this
season. The Rams win total of 10 sent off some alarm bells in my head. With 11
wins last year, and possibly making the biggest splash in free agency, is the
Aaron Donald holdout reason enough to imagine the Rams finishing the season with
single digit wins?
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Will
Jared Goff regress and can Todd Hurley produce in back-to-back seasons for the
first time in his career? Will Sean McVay stay ahead of the coaching curve, or
will other NFL coaches figure out how to gameplan against him? Rounding out the
NFC West win totals show the Seahawks at 8 and the Cards in the basement at
5.5.
AFC
West
I
think the AFC West is going to provide us some major drama this season. The
division’s top team last season was the Chiefs at 10-6, the Chargers at 9-7,
Raiders at 6-10 and Broncos 5-11.
What’s
the biggest news out of the AFC West during the offseason? Was it Gruden making
his way back to the Black Hole or Andy Reid shipping off Alex Smith, in essence
giving the reins to second-year QB Patrick Mahomes? How these moves pan out
will most likely determine the future of the AFC West. The Chiefs current win
total is set at 8.5 with the Oakland set at 8.
Staying
in the West, let’s not forget two things. Number 1, after losing their first
four games last season, the Chargers won 9 of their last twelve to narrowly
miss the playoffs. If the Chargers can stay healthy (for once), OVER 9.5 wins
is doable. Second, the Broncos won 12 and 9 games in 2015 and 2016, but could
only muster 5 last year. Some consider the Broncos draft a few months back
among the best in football, and they got themselves a QB. Is there value in the
Broncos at 7 wins?
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There’s
a lot to consider when handicapping NFL season win totals. In reality, we could
do all the homework and research that’s available for us to read, but the human
factor makes some equations impossible to figure out. By looking at these three
divisions, there are some great values to be had. Call up your online sportsbook, load those accounts
and get your future bets in before it’s too late.
